We created this single page dashboard to give you an overview of the forecasts and the impact of the election on financial markets.
In this first chart, we compared national poll data for Clinton and Trump for the past 65 days. We used FiveThirtyEight’s analysis of more than 1,000 polls for the daily average. You can see the gap narrowing and the candidates are less than 3 points apart as of November 5.
We added the data column to show the November 5 data on the chart. To simplify the X axis, we chose to show every 10th label on the chart (this option is found in the Bars tab in Format Bars and Series.
In the second chart, we compared FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast, using the polls-plus methodology which incorporates polls, economic and historical data to assess the probability of a win for each candidate. Again, you can see that the gap has narrowed considerably in the past 2 weeks.
The third chart is a marimekko showing the Electoral College forecast for each candidate using data from Real Clear Politics. You can see that Clinton has a 52 vote advantage according to the forecast and there are 158 votes up for grabs in the gray states.
We used the standard coloring scheme for politics where darker colors denote states with a larger advantage (e.g. California is dark blue). We colored this chart by first applying cell colors in Excel (see below) and then selecting Apply Cell Colors from Spreadsheet under the Style tab in the Format Chart Task pane. We also sorted the data for this chart to show the biggest column on the left and the biggest states, in terms of Electoral College votes, on the bottom of each bar.
In this last chart, we highlight the economic impact of this election by focusing on the S&P 500. You can see the YTD actual return for the index is 2%, but the return for the last 10 days is -3%. Analysts attribute the declines to uncertainty about the election and, with 9 straight declining days, this is the longest losing streak for the index since 1980. We compared the actual returns to 3 different forecasts of short-term returns based on the outcome of the election. You can see that analysts are forecasting a 0-4% increase if Clinton is elected and a 5-13% decrease if Trump is elected.
You can download this dashboard on SlideShare.